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If some random or chaotic process, like a roll of dice, the flip of a coin, or the Forex market appears to depart from normal random behavior over a series of normal cycles -- for example if a coin flip comes up 7 heads in a row - the gambler's fallacy is that irresistible feeling that the next flip has a higher chance of coming up tails. In a truly random process, like a coin flip, the odds are always the same. In the case of the coin flip, even after 7 heads in a row, the chances that the next flip will come up heads again are still 50%. The gambler might win the next toss or he might lose, but the odds are still only 50-50.
What often happens is the gambler will compound his error by raising his bet in the expectation that there is a better chance that the next flip will be tails. HE IS WRONG. If a gambler bets consistently like this over time, the statistical probability that he will lose all his money is near certain.The only thing that can save this turkey is an even less probable run of incredible luck.
The Forex market is not really random, but it is chaotic and there are so many variables in the market that true prediction is beyond current technology. What traders can do is stick to the probabilities of known situations. This is where technical analysis of charts and patterns in the market come into play along with studies of other factors that affect the market. Many traders spend thousands of hours and thousands of dollars studying market patterns and charts trying to predict market movements.
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